Summary: Former President Donald Trump has said he plans to hike tariffs on imports again if he wins the November election, and claimed during Tuesday’s debate that prices for U.S. consumers would not be affected. Duke economics professor Felix Tintelnot examined the impact of Trump’s 2018 tariffs on washing machines and is available for comment.
Quotes:
“The Trump campaign proposes 10 to 20 percent tariffs on all countries sending goods to the United States,” says Felix Tintelnot, an associate professor of economics at Duke University. “Our paper examined in detail the price effects from a global 20 percent increase in tariffs on a particular product: washing machines.”
“We found that in prior years, when tariffs were placed on an individual country alone, such as on washers coming from China in 2016, the price effects were muted; companies could just relocate to other export platform countries. However, the 2018 global tariffs resulted in more dramatic increases in consumer prices.”
“Compared to oven ranges, dishwashers and refrigerators, we found a roughly 10 percent price increase on washers, and an equivalent price increase for dryers. Taken together, this implies roughly full pass-through of the tariffs to U.S. consumers.”
“In February 2023 the washer tariffs expired. That’s when we see a large decline in consumer prices for laundry equipment, roughly around 13 percent. The price of other appliances fell by 3 percent over the same period.”
“All in all, our research suggests that an across-the-board 20 percent increase in tariffs on all countries can have large effects on inflation for American consumers.”
Bio:
Felix Tintelnot is an associate professor in Duke University’s Department of Economics. His research focuses on international economics.
For additional comment, contact Felix Tintelnot at:
felix.tintelnot@duke.edu
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Media Contact:
Steve Hartsoe
steve.hartsoe@duke.edu
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