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News Tip: Trump’s Social Media Order ‘Threatens To Do Far More Harm Than Good,’ Expert Says

President Trump is expected to sign an executive order Thursday aimed at social media companies in response to Twitter adding a fact-checking notice to his tweets. Duke University professor Phil Napoli, who studies media regulation and policy, is available to comment.

Quotes:
“I think a compelling case can be made that social media platforms are in need of some form of government regulation,” says Phil Napoli, a professor of public policy at Duke University who researches media institutions, media regulation and policy. “Other democracies have taken steps in this direction. Even Mark Zuckerberg himself has argued that regulation is necessary.”

“Unfortunately, this initiative coming from the White House threatens to do far more harm than good to the cause of responsible, constitutional and effective government regulation of social media. This is because the most potent argument that opponents of social media regulation have at their disposal is the concern that any regulatory intervention can be used primarily as a political tool by the administration in power. Which is exactly what these actions from the White House appear to be.”

“They’ve been motivated by the act of fact-checking, which is basically the last bastion of objective, non-partisan journalism in this country. They’ve been motivated by the act of counter-speech — the notion of ‘the more speech the better’ – that has long been the rallying cry of First Amendment purists, particularly those who have advocated against platforms’ efforts to police disinformation and hate speech.

“So, to the extent that the motivations for this regulatory intervention seem to run counter to basic democratic principles, it’s hard to imagine that it will lead to the kind of measured, non-partisan discussion of social media regulation that we need.”

Bio:
Philip Napoli, professor of public policy, researches media institutions, media regulation and policy. He has testified on these topics to the U.S. Senate, the FCC and the FTC. Napoli is the author of the book, “Social Media and the Public Interest: Media Regulation in the Disinformation Age” (2019).
https://sanford.duke.edu/people/faculty/napoli-philip-michael

For additional comment, contact Phil Napoli at:
philip.napoli@duke.edu

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Media Contact:
Steve Hartsoe
steve.hartsoe@duke.edu
_ _ _ _

Duke experts on a variety of political topics can be found at https://communications.duke.edu/2020-election-experts/.

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Duke's Guide for Returning to Work on Campus, Safely

At the Epicenter of COVID-19

As the COVID-19 crisis began to emerge in Wuhan, China, a Duke psychiatrist and her colleagues banded together to provide immediate mental health support to their front-line colleagues from the other side of the world.

Dr. Wei Jiang, who leads the neuropsychocardiology laboratory at Duke University Medical Center, helped organize a volunteer group of Chinese-speaking mental health professionals from the U.S., Canada and Australia. She spoke about the program, its challenges, and the lessons learned about providing mental health support via mobile apps, in a virtual presentation to digital health professionals on May 25. Here are excerpts of her remarks:

Jiang: “Because of the huge flush of cases in Wuhan, all the hospitals were overwhelmed and the central Chinese government had to inject more than 40,000 physicians and nurses and respiratory technicians to that city, and those people could not travel back home. So their life was taking care of a patient, and then living in a hotel worrying about what's happening with their family members and with their own health … So even if they are not infected with COVID, just the stress brought to their body would create a lot of inflammatory process and lots of immune suppressive processes.”

How the effort came together:

Jiang: “We felt like those health care providers’ stress is too high, and we would like to help them to get through the most difficult time, and we started a group to provide peer-to-peer mental health support. … Several of us who wanted to do so already had an organizational group together, and a good amount of people followed up to respond to the call. And then we defined the criteria to be part of it, that people have to be trained as mental health providers.”

The 35-strong volunteer group comprised psychiatrists, psychologists, clinical social workers, professional counselors, mental health counselors and registered nurses. They teamed up to provide coverage for 16 hours a day.

Jiang: “We decided to have each shift to be two hours, and then we preferred to have at least two members to sign up for the shift. So those two people will be primarily responsible for that two hours of the service, and our other people if they have time, they can also log on to this platform.”

The counselors used WeChat, a mobile messaging and social media app with more than a billion users in China.

Jiang: “The first principle is do no harm. And we kept strictly with confidentiality. The people who get online talking to us, they do not have to use their real name unless they wanted to. This is a strictly peer-to-peer support, we're not like a clinician who is out there treating diseases. We made the system very clear that this is short-term crisis support, and there is not any thought that we would move to a longer relationship.”

The counselors used a combination of approaches to help their peers.

Jiang: “We wanted this to be a multidisciplinary treatment, we didn't want it just to be a psychiatrist or psychological counseling, so we included a social worker and some school counseling. … Our goal was to restore their baseline function. We didn't think any of those health care providers had a significant mental illness that would prohibit them from delivering frontline COVID management. But because of the humongous stress and uncertainties and unfairness, a lot of them were stressed out. We just wanted to help them to cope with the current of stress, which was unusual, but to which their reaction is normal. We worked with them to get back to their baseline function as fast as they can.”

The counseling group noticed providers going through a series of emotional responses to the pandemic, akin to the stages of grief, but with extra steps. They noted 10 in all: Bewilderment, shock, anger, anxiety, burnout, desperation, acceptance, hope, recovery, and an aftermath.

Jiang: “The shock was coming from that all of a sudden, the entire city was completely shut down, followed by the entire country. People were so scared, and they rushed into the hospital and now the hospitals were over-jammed. And then the health providers started getting infected because they were not ready. They did not know how to cope with such a profound infectious disease. … Then they went into anger, anxiety and desperation, feeling a lot of burnout symptoms when they were working extra-long hours.”

The team found some cultural challenges in getting people to open up about their stress.

Jiang: “The characteristic of the people in China, generally speaking, is more conserved, it's not outgoing and chatty like we are in America. So to have them engage with us took some time. And in China, starting from very young age, you are told that you have to sacrifice yourself for society, for other people. So they have a lot of emotional and physical burnout, but in their mind, their superego is still telling them that they must do for others.”

Jiang said the effort showed large-scale mental health support via mobile app can work in similar situations in the future.

Jiang: “We really could build up more electronically-based and electronically delivered mental health support services, either to health care providers or to patients. … Lots of materials actually already exist online, but not in an organized way, and not instructive.”

About the expert:
Wei Jiang is a professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences and a professor of medicine at the Duke University School of Medicine. She studies how the mind and brain intersect with the cardiovascular system and how to mitigate the negative effect of emotions on that system.

How to Address COVID-19 in Nursing Homes

Nursing homes will continue to be COVID-19 hotspots until state and federal officials can institute sweeping testing of asymptomatic patients and workers, Duke experts said Wednesday.

The testing is critical to beat back the threat to a most vulnerable elderly population, three Duke scholars noted during a briefing for media that covered this and myriad other topics related to nursing facilities and the coronavirus pandemic.

Audio and vide are available here.

Here are excerpts:

ON WHY NURSING HOMES ARE SUCH VIRUS HOTSPOTS

Donald Taylor, public policy professor

“The best way to think about nursing homes is to think about the people who go there every day. That includes the workers. The workers in nursing homes are at risk of occupational exposure. They’re also at risk of bringing infection into the nursing home from the community, and taking it out.”

“You have patients who are at risk moving in and out. You have long-stay patients who are there, and you have workers moving in and out. Without a broad scale, asymptomatic testing approach, we will not deal with the epidemic in skilled nursing facilities.”

“Given asymptomatic transmission of the disease, we probably will not be able to get control of this in nursing homes without asymptomatic testing. We don’t know what that protocol of testing … will look like, but we desperately need evidence. If we don’t manage to control the epidemic within nursing homes, we’re not going to control it in the United States. Read: "To test our way out of the Covid-19 nightmare, focus on nursing homes"

ON WHAT NURSING HOME STAFF CAN DO TO HELP PATIENTS

Eleanor McConnell, nursing professor

“Continue to partner effectively with family members to better understand what matters most to the individuals. These residents are at incredibly high risk for infections and for adverse outcomes. Now more than ever we really need to focus on what matters to these people.”

“They need to make better use of technology. There’s a whole range of ways we can connect family members who can no longer visit with residents in the nursing homes, from simple technology like the telephone, to more advanced technologies like the Zoom platform.”

“Research has shown that people of all different levels of cognitive ability retain the ability to display emotion. Staff need to be particularly attuned to emotional response of the residents living in these communities. Often it’s only through emotional expression — the ability to express joy or sorrow or fear — that we’re going to successfully meet both the psychological and social needs as well as the physical needs.”

ON WHY IT’S HARD TO COORDINATE AND OVERSEE MASS TESTING

Nathan Boucher, public policy professor

“The big problem here is the disjointedness. We’ve been throwing around the words ‘skilled-nursing facility’ and ‘nursing home’ but there’s all sorts of levels of skilled- nursing facilities and nursing homes and assisted-living facilities, and care homes and residential homes, and the oversight varies.”

“There’s varying degrees in ownership of these organizations’ oversight. That creates a lot of disjointedness in rolling out some of these programs. I do believe there needs to be, because it’s not just statewide … there needs to be more federal input on this.”

ON THE CHALLENGES FACING NURSING FACILITIES

McConnell

“If you just get very concrete and think about what does it take to implement basic infection-control procedures, it’s time-consuming to mask, to gown up, to wash your hands. It stands to reason that if you’re starting out with a very thin level of staffing, it’s going to be hard to take those precautions and continue to provide very demanding care.”

ON WHY NURSING HOMES ARE HOT SPOTS

Boucher

“These facilities are not closed systems. There’s a constant flow of shift workers in and out of these systems, every hour, every shift. Even if there’s no-visitors policies, there are staff who go out to the community and come back in again. There’s an awful lot that goes out to the wild west of society, depending on where these folks live.”

“Many of these care workers work other jobs, they are caring for their own family members. There’s an awful lot of contact going on before they hit those (nursing home) front doors.”

ON CHALLENGES FACING A NURSING HOME RESIDENT WITH DEMENTIA

McConnell

“As a part of the brain disease, there’s often difficulty in communicating, understanding instructions that other people give you, or remembering about things like hand-washing or social distancing.”

“People who have moderate to severe dementia depend upon non-verbal cues to understand someone’s intent. To communicate on a day-to-day basis with all these people with masks on, that to me is a big lift and a huge challenge.”

“There’s this notion in dementia care of emotional contagion. I think if staff are anxious and fraught, there’s likely to be some transmission of that emotion to others. I know from talking to my colleagues in acute care, as they’ve become more comfortable with managing COVID-19 … their anxiety has come down. So there’s part of me that’s hopeful that this can get better.”

ONE THING FAMILIES COULD DO NOW TO SUPPORT LOVED ONES

McConnell

“It’s all about relationships. Staying connected with the nursing home staff, be it the administrator or social work staff. Increasingly I’m hearing nursing homes talk about a new class of worker, which is a social connector. Recreation therapists who used to be connecting people in groups are now connecting people on the phone.”

“I would encourage family members to step up and if they don’t already have a relationship (with staff), use this time to forge one.”

Taylor

“It’s important for your loved one to have an advocate. You need to try to stay as engaged as possible. It’s hard.”

ON HOW RESIDENTIAL CARE WILL CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM

Boucher

“Just like in regular health care and the rest of society, we’ve done the organic, societal experiment to see if Zoom and other remote connectivity options work. We’ve been forced to use it. I’m hoping that will become a regular thing even if things go back to normal … in these facilities.”

“There will be regular use not just of telehealth for clinicians … but also to mitigate some of that social isolation. That was a problem before COVID-19 and is just worse now. I’m hoping that technology will rise to meet the occasion.”

Faculty Participants

Nathan Boucher is an assistant research professor in the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke. He studies patients’ and caregivers’ experiences and expectations of health care delivery during advanced illness and near the end of life.
nathan.boucher@duke.edu

Eleanor Schildwachter McConnell is an associate professor in the Duke University School of Nursing. She studies factors that influence functional decline in very frail older adults. Her research has been funded by the National Institute of Nursing Research and the Department of Veterans Affairs.
eleanor.mcconnell@duke.edu

Donald Taylor
Donald Taylor is a professor of public policy who researches aging and comparative health systems, including Medicare, long-term care and health policy. Taylor also directs Duke’s Social Science Research Center.
don.taylor@duke.edu

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Duke experts on a variety of other topics related the coronavirus pandemic can be found here.

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Meet the Duke Dean Whose Obsession With 'Star Trek' Landed Him a Gig as Their Next Science Consultant

Like many people during the COVID-19 crisis, Dean Mohamed Noor spends part of every day in virtual meetings.

But he makes his Zoom calls a little better by taking them from the bridge of the Starship Enterprise.

Noor is a biology professor and dean of natural sciences at Duke and winner of the Linnean Society’s 2008 Darwin-Wallace Medal. He’s also a hard-core Trekkie. A few years ago, looking to revamp some of his courses, Noor started using science fiction to teach real-world science.

If you want to know what human-Vulcan hybrids can teach us about evolution, or why aliens with slug-shaped symbionts aren’t as bizarre as they sound, Noor is your man.

He’s written a book on the subject, offers "Star Trek"-inspired biology lessons on his YouTube channel, and gives talks at universities, fan conventions and on cruise ships.

And now, he’s even joined CBS's "Star Trek" team as a science consultant. Noor spoke via email with Duke Today about his new role:

Q: What does a "Star Trek" science consultant do?

A: A science consultant can help in many different parts of the writing process. They might help with a general story arc involving a "sciencey" series of events, or with the plot of a particular episode, or even with just a few lines of dialogue in a particular scene.

I can't give spoilers, but hypothetically let’s say the writers are brainstorming how an alien species could become invisible to the human eye on demand. The science consultant would write a page or so explaining how this might happen and include sample dialogue. Importantly, the dialogue will be acted by non-scientists who are not looking at scripts, so short, simple language is very important — no science essays!

In the end, story comes above perfect scientific accuracy, so sometimes the answer is to make something come "as close as possible" but that wouldn't actually work with the science we know right now. Or to invoke an unknown phenomenon, force or material to help fill the gaps.

Nothing I’ve worked on has aired yet, so I don't know that they use what I give them. But what's great is that many science fiction shows want to make their plots scientifically reasonable. They could start by inventing a term and just running with it in a comic-book-like manner. (No offense to comic books.) Instead, they talk with scientists to make sure both their facts and dialogue are accurate and to get advice about what they might say and do. They don't have to do this, and it's great that they do.

Q: How does one break into this business? For you it all came down to networking?

A: The National Academy of Sciences hosts the Science and Entertainment Exchange, and scientists who sign up can potentially be connected with writers working on projects. I did get connected with one project outside the "Star Trek" universe through them.

But what actually worked the best to get me in was a Duke alum and "Star Trek" actress named Jayne Brook. I met her at Dragon Con. She was signing autographs and speaking on actor panels. And she came to a talk that I gave with Dr. Erin Macdonald on science in the series "Star Trek: Discovery." At the very end, she came up to me said, ‘Hey, I went to Duke.’ That’s how we first started corresponding. I gave her a copy of my book and she read it very thoroughly. She even came and spoke to my class on campus, as well as to several classes in Theater Studies. I mentioned my interest in consulting, and she said, ‘I'm good friends with one of the writers. Let me talk to her.’ So the Duke connection did this. I don't know that it would have happened if it wasn't for her.

Q: Can you make a living doing this, or is it mostly a side gig?

A: I do this "on contract", not regularly — so it's just been a few times. But it's SUPER fun each time!

Q: During spring break in early March, you found yourself aboard a "Star Trek" cruise as one of their invited guests. What was that like?

A: The "Star Trek" cruise is like a science fiction convention on the water. On one hand, it is like any other cruise — lots of food, a big pool on the top, a casino, shops, stops and excursions at Caribbean destinations, etc. On the other, there are Trek-themed convention-like activities all the time — Q&As or other panels/activities with actors, behind the scenes on makeup or art or writing associated with "Star Trek," trivia contests, themed parties, and of course, science talks. The science talks have a Trek slant but they are at their heart truly educational talks. One of mine, for example, was on personal genotyping. I had examples from "Star Trek," but the talk was about genetics, genomics, and scientific/ethical issues with direct-to-consumer genotyping services. Another talk of mine was largely on the evidence for evolution (using both real Earth examples as well as Trek aliens) and explanations of evolutionary processes. These are not "learn the science of Trek" talks — they are "learn real science using Trek" talks.

Q: Tell us about an experience you had onboard:

A: The highlight for me was having 8:30 a.m. "office hours" for cruise-goers. Very few students come to my office hours on campus. But on the cruise, I’d show up 30 minutes early and find multiple people already waiting to talk science and ask science questions.

I was generally surprised at how many people knew who the scientists were and not just the actors — I defaulted to saying hello to almost everyone I'd pass in the hall, and probably 75% of the time, people would reply "Hello Professor." This was a ship with some 3,000 "Star Trek" fans who surely didn't sign up for the cruise to see me!

Q: Within days of your getting back from the cruise, Duke canceled in-person classes. What’s it like to be on a cruise ship, surrounded by Trek fans, while the rest of North America braces for its first outbreak?

A: Things weren't so bad right when we left, but we were aware that there was an outbreak brewing. From the very beginning, hand-shakes were discouraged (to be replaced by elbow-bumps or Vulcan hand-salutes). There was a fun fellow who stood outside the buffet dining hall who'd squirt a HUGE dollop of hand sanitizer on everyone's hands as they walked in and yell amusing things like "You have the power!"

Q: How has "Star Trek" changed your teaching?

A: Some colleagues ask, ‘Why don't you teach real science?’ And I’m like, ‘I am teaching real science.’ I was nervous with "Star Trek" as a subject for college students in particular, because there's not a lot of 18- to 19-year-old "Star Trek" fans. The fan base on average is much older. So I was nervous when we first launched our “Genetics, Evolution and Star Trek” class at Duke. Is anybody going to sign up? Half the people in the class had not watched any "Star Trek". But I think they were in because they liked the idea of having a good story associated with learning. If the students are having fun, they learn more, and it makes it more fun for me.

Q: Favorite episodes to watch (again) while you stay at home, or to recommend to others as we wait out the pandemic?

A: I'm guessing people don't really want more pandemic-related episodes right now when we're living through one. Nothing too political either. Something more upbeat or pretty is good. In that light, I'd recommend The Next Generation episode "The Inner Light" (Season 5, episode 25).

Survey: NC Becoming More Polarized Over Pandemic Threat

North Carolinians are split over the risks posed by the coronavirus, a Duke survey finds.

The statewide social distancing survey, now in its sixth week, also found fewer people are practicing social distancing across the state, but that most still believe they are responding appropriately.

The survey was designed by the Duke University COVID-19 Digital Lab, a joint project of Duke Forge and Duke’s Social Science Research Institute. It is being repeated weekly to provide insight on how people in North Carolina are changing their behavior over time in response to the outbreak.

The latest survey was conducted by phone May 9-11. It asked 1,684 North Carolinians about their social distancing behavior and attitudes during that time.

Forty-three percent of survey respondents said they felt most North Carolinians were responding appropriately, down significantly from the range of 52-57 percent seen in the survey’s first four weeks.

"We see increased polarization around how respondents view the risks of the coronavirus. This is a result of increases in both the share of respondents who think most North Carolinians are underestimating the risk, and the share of respondents who think most North Carolinians are overreacting,” said Nick Eubanks, an assistant research professor at SSRI who worked on the survey.

The share of respondents who think most North Carolinians are underestimating the risk is up nine points in the last two weeks to 42 percent, while those who think most are overreacting has increased from 8 percent in March to 15 percent in the latest survey.

Meanwhile, the survey found significant changes in social distancing behavior:

The number of people reporting no face-to-face interactions with people outside their household has fallen by 10 percentage points to 23 percent.
Twenty-eight percent of people reported at least one face-to-face interaction with someone outside their house in which they were unable to stay 6 feet from the other person, up by six points.
The number of people who reported being in a group of 20 or more people in the last week has continued to rise slowly, up to 26 percent.

Despite these changes, the share of respondents who say they are practicing social distancing remains stable at about 95 percent, and the number of people reporting large changes in their routines has stayed at about 60 percent.

“This shows that the core finding of this survey still holds: Social distancing means very different things to different people,” Eubank said. “However, it does also suggest most North Carolinians believe that they are continuing to exercise caution even as they change their behavior.”

News Tip: Burr Stepping Down From Leadership Role ‘Overdue,’ Expert Says

Republican Sen. Richard Burr of North Carolina announced Thursday he is stepping down as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. Burr is under investigation for stock trades he made before the coronavirus pandemic caused the market to tank.

Quotes:
“The allegation that Sen. Burr abused his access to classified intelligence briefings for personal financial gain is deeply troubling and undermines public trust in our institutions,” says David Schanzer, associate professor of the practice of public policy at Duke University and director of the Triangle Center on Terrorism and Homeland Security.

“His decision to step down from leadership of the Senate Intelligence Committee is overdue and he should be removed from the panel entirely while the FBI investigates these serious charges.”

Bio:
David Schanzer is an expert on counterterrorism strategy, counterterrorism law and homeland security. Schanzer was the Democratic staff director for the House of Representatives Committee on Homeland Security from 2003-005. He previously served as the legislative director for Sen. Jean Carnahan (2001-2002), and counsel to Sens. Joe Biden (1996-98), and William Cohen (1994-96).
https://sanford.duke.edu/people/faculty/schanzer-david-h

For additional comment, contact David Schanzer at:
schanzer@duke.edu

—
Media Contact:
Steve Hartsoe
steve.hartsoe@duke.edu

_ _ _ _

Duke experts on a variety of political topics can be found at https://communications.duke.edu/2020-election-experts/.

New Measures Announced to Protect the University’s Financial Future

Duke President Vincent Price announced Wednesday several new cost-cutting measures designed to secure the university’s financial future in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic that has affected all of the university’s sources of revenue.

The new measures are effective July 1 and include temporarily suspending the university’s contribution to the Duke Faculty and Staff Retirement 403(b) plan for a one-year period; temporary reduction of salary for employees earning more than $285,000; and additional voluntary salary reductions by senior leaders.

Price’s announcement applies to all university employees, and can be read in full here.

Duke University Health System employees will receive separate communications.

These steps are in addition to previously announced actions including requiring the approval for all ongoing, non-salary expenditures greater than $2,500; a hiring freeze; suspension of salary increases; and placing new university construction projects on hold.

Including the measures announced Wednesday, the university’s actions to date are projected to reduce expenditures by between $150 million and $200 million in the next fiscal year, Price said. That savings will be essential to “sustain the university’s academic programs for the near-term.”

“We take this step only after very careful study and deliberation,” Price said. “While painful, it appears our best way forward for two reasons. First, it affects only deferred income and only for one year, meaning that regular salaries will continue to be paid throughout this temporary period. Second, this will ensure that Duke can continue to support our employees, their families, and the Durham economy.”

Price noted the action will not affect either the employee contribution to the 403(b) retirement plan and or the separate Employees’ Retirement Plan for biweekly paid employees.

Approximately 300 university employees who earn more than the federal 403(b) contribution threshold of $285,000 will have their salaries reduced by 10 percent of the amount above the threshold. Meanwhile Price’s salary will be reduced by 20 percent – and the provost, executive vice president and chancellor’s salaries by 15 percent – of the amount over the threshold. Deans and vice presidents will also make additional contributions.

Price called these actions the “best and most equitable path for us at this difficult moment.” He added that university officials are continuing to monitor the financial situation and that the Team 2030 task force is engaged in long-term planning. This team may recommend further actions in the future.

“Some may wonder why we don’t simply draw additional funds from Duke’s endowment to address these deficits,” Price said. “You are probably aware that the endowment, which in times of growth is a source of funding for priorities such as student financial aid and faculty chairs, is not a ‘rainy day’ savings account. Rather, it is a permanent fund intended to provide ongoing support over the life of the university, and most of it is legally restricted for specific purposes.

“The steps we are taking to secure Duke’s financial future are already predicated on spending as much as we responsibly can from our endowment. Indeed, even with the actions outlined here, we expect in the coming year to spend from our endowment—which has suffered considerably by recent declines in the market—at rates that will not be made up for by investment growth, thus further reducing this vital source of long-term income.”

He added that the strength shown by the Duke community throughout this semester reinforced his belief that the university will get through daunting times. “We are a strong and resourceful community guided, especially in challenging times, by our shared values of mutual respect, trust, inclusion, discovery and excellence in all we do. Our work is great and good, and it continues in the face of the pandemic.”

The Pandemic's Effect on Energy and the Environment

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has had a destructive effect on the oil industry, but may give lawmakers and policy experts a chance to do some productive, environmentally friendly long-term energy planning, three Duke experts said Wednesday.

The energy scholars spoke to reporters in a press briefing. Downloadable audio and video files are available here.

Here are excerpts:

ON THE PANDEMIC AND OIL PRICES

Brian Murray, director, Duke University Energy Initiative

“We’re now witnessing the largest demand destruction ever seen — about a 30 percent reduction in the daily consumption of oil. This has caused oil prices to plummet. It’s a global market and this affects the highest-cost producers the most.”

“Will this accelerate the adoption of renewables? That’s a mixed story. What’s favorable for renewables in this environment is that investment capital is looking for more steady returns. The volatility of commodity markets is really spooking them and renewable energy is a good alternative, especially as the cost and the reliability of renewable assets like wind and solar… have improved remarkably over time.”

ON LEARNING FROM THE PANDEMIC

Kate Konschnik, climate and energy expert

“The most important thing for policymakers and the public to realize is how much we don’t yet understand. We’re seeing major divergence from our normal transportation and energy use patterns … but what we don’t know is whether those trends will stick, whether they’ll deepen or whether they’ll reverse course. There’s just a lot of uncertainty.”

ON PUBLIC BUY-IN FOR BEHAVIOR CHANGE

Konschnik

“If you ask a lot of Americans, and tell them we’ve dropped our CO2 emissions 11 percent over the last year, they’ll say I’m trapped in my house and I’m unemployed, so if this is what it takes to tackle climate change, no thank you. That is a real risk going forward.”

ON THE IMMEDIATE IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC ON AIR QUALITY

Drew Shindell, earth science professor

“The drop in energy demand is making a substantial difference to emissions of all things that affect air quality and climate change.”

“As we change the emissions over the course of weeks, days, months … we see a response very quickly. Most of the public can see that. I go running around Durham, North Carolina, and I can feel the difference in my breathing. So I can only imagine what the difference is in Delhi or Shanghai. So these differences are very profound.”

ON PEOPLE BEING HEALTHIER

Shindell

“I think we will be able to see (a profound difference) in human health. As people breathe less pollution, fewer people go to the hospital. So we’re seeing people go to the hospital for COVID, but fewer people go to the hospital for respiratory problems. So there’s some really interesting medical questions going on.”

ON HEALTH AND ECONOMIC POLICY OPPORTUNITY KNOCKING

Shindell

“The real question is what happens going forward? Do we decide that hey, telecommuting works, and we like not having as many cars clogging up downtown streets and let’s make this the new normal? Or do we decide that … the economy is in really poor shape and we need to pour money into tried and true things like propping up fossil fuel industries.”

“I think what we’re really going to be looking for is how governments respond post-pandemic. Do we build back better and get a new society where we put people to work doing things that will help the environment long term? All these 20 million people who have lost jobs, they need something to do.”

ON THE BIGGEST DROP IN CO2 (CARBON DIOXIDE) EMISSIONS?

Shindell

“We see the largest percentage drops in things like shipping and aviation, but those are in general smaller contributors to global emissions. In terms of the total tons of CO2 coming out into the world, the largest drops are from industry — the decline in industrial manufacturing — and from transportation, primarily motor vehicles. We’re seeing smaller declines in energy.”

“Going into the future, we expect industry to largely return. It’s still a big unknown what will happen with transportation, and if we’ll go back to the same demand and usage patterns and commuting patterns.”

ON RELIABILITY AND SAFETY OF POWER SYSTEMS DURING PANDEMIC

Murray

“This is actually just the kind of thing that utilities are really good at — keeping the electrons flowing. In terms of keeping plants running, they’re really good at this. They’ve had pandemic plans in place for a long period of time.”

“People have said the only thing that stands between us and the Stone Age these days is electric power systems and reliable WI-FI. I think they have taken this role very seriously and have performed admirably in terms of keeping the system running.”

“It will be interesting to see in the summer, as the demands for electricity change, how the needs will be met. It will also change the daily profile of electricity use. As people stay at home, our kind of peak load for energy shifts.”

WILL ENERGY USE CHANGE WITH EVERYONE WORKING AT HOME?

Konschnik

“In a normal time, we see these spikes in the morning when a lot of people are getting ready for work or school, and then when they get home at the end of the day. We’re already seeing in Florida a shift to residential electricity demand … and the temperatures have required people to start air conditioning their homes. We’re not seeing overall electricity demand go down and we’re not seeing these spikes. So it’s looking like there’s sustained increase across the day in electricity use in residential buildings. That could show where the rest of the country, as temperatures rise, is heading.”

“We could see a shift from commercial spaces to residential spaces being air-conditioned in the summer. In some parts of the country … that could go against this general trend of a drop in electricity usage.”

ON ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE NOW

Shindell

“There is a great deal of opportunity. We’ve seen difficulties, very pronounced difficulty, in getting action put in place around the world, both because the public sees this as a diffuse and future threat rather than something that’s here and now and tangible, and we’ve seen difficulty in getting the initial capital that’s needed sometimes that’s need to invest.”

“What we’re seeing with this pandemic is people can really see the air around them cleaner. They’re seeing that when we make a change, we can have an immediate impact on the environment — a profound impact. Obviously we don’t want to deal with climate change by locking everyone up at home. But the public will to live in a clean environment is enhanced because they’re seeing what can happen when we get rid of pollution.”

“Given how many millions of people are out of work, and how much work there is to be done — there are fairly non-specialized, low-skill jobs that can be given out to millions and millions of people that can aid the transition. I think there’s a real opportunity there for us to speed this transition, as part of the response to the transition.”

ON ONE THING THAT WOULD HELP RIGHT NOW

Konschnik

“I would like to see real investment in clean transportation and clean energy infrastructure. If we’re going to be infusing a lot of capital into the economy to get it started again, we should be investing in the technologies of tomorrow, the technologies that are good for the environment and good for the economy.”

Meet the experts

Kate Konschnik
Kate Konschnik is director of the Climate & Energy Program at Duke’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions. She specializes in the Clean Air Act and its application to clean energy and climate goals. Konschnik has worked with state governments on climate and energy policy, and she has deep knowledge of upstream oil and gas operations, particularly on impacts to air, water and land resources.
kate.konschnik@duke.edu

Brian Murray
Brian Murray is director of the Duke University Energy Initiative. He specializes in the design of economic policies to address a range of environmental problems, with a focus on climate change policy. This includes the design of cap-and-trade systems; price containment mechanisms; and emissions offsets generated by the agriculture, forest and land-use sectors.
brian.murray@duke.edu

Drew Shindell
Drew Shindell is a professor of earth science. He researches how climate emissions and air pollution affect human health and food security globally. Shindell has testified before Congress and chairs the science advisory panel to the international Climate and Clean Air Coalition; was lead author on the UN’s 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.
drew.shindell@duke.edu

Duke experts on a variety of other topics related the coronavirus pandemic can be found here.

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Food Supply Chains and Covid-19

Video of FOOD SUPPLY CHAINS AND COVID-19: Mother Nature and Selective Resilience_Highlights

Two food logistics data scientists, Duke alumnus Elliott Wolf and Daniel Wintz, joined professors Giovanni Zanalda, Gary Gereffi and Lori Leachman for a discussion on the working of food supply chains and their resilience during the COVID-19 crisis. They noted that COVID-19 and its associated increase in food purchases are not unlike a typical uptick seen around major holidays.

Food supply chains are characterized by underlying resilience and large reserves, which has allowed U.S. and EU grocery stores to be well stocked with food. They also drew important lessons for the retooling and restructuring of global supply chains including medical supplies and personal protective equipment.

This event is the second in a series of webinars on the impact of COVID-19 on global supply chains organized by the DUCIGS/Rethinking Diplomacy Program. For a summary and video of the first event follow this link.

Here are excerpts:

RESILIENCY IN THE FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN

Daniel Wintz, principal data scientist at Lineage Logistics

“There’s a resiliency built into the food supply chain that we’re forced to do by virtue of bacteria on its own. Bacteria wants to eat our food and it spoils, and so things are a bit more efficient, so to speak. We really have only a few days to get it to the grocery store and then they have a few days to sell it. Whereas face masks — the part that expires on the mask is the elastic band after eight years. We’re kind of forced to be this good.”

Elliott Wolf, vice president and chief data scientist of Lineage Logistics

“First, there’s lots and lots and lots of sources. We have very efficient commodity markets that allow you to backfill from all over the world. And then lastly, we have lots and lots of inventory actually in physical storage in the United States. And so that’s why you’ve been able to get cauliflower and fish but perhaps not toilet paper.”

Daniel Wintz

“The statistics of rare events is difficult. And it’s almost kind of clear that resiliency is a way to deal with these rare events and doing that expected value calculation for the supply chain. It appears that a lot of companies haven’t done that all the way right."

FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCY VS. OTHER

Elliott Wolf

“Toilet paper has become, in the mind of the American consumer, the emblem of supply chain failures.”

“I'm proud of the fact that of all of the supply chains implicated in this, whether personal protective equipment, medical devices, pharmaceuticals, dry food, the only one that really didn't fall down was perishable food. Carrots are available. Meat is still broadly available.”

“In reality we’ve been trained. The system has trained us to not rely on the availability of this stuff. The system has trained us and history has trained us. The history of humanity is in very large measure the history of agricultural disruptions. And now the system is dealing with things that the rest of the economy is shocked to learn are a factor. That’s got to change everyone else’s outlook on this. I hope it does because the fact that the U.S. ran out of masks is really frightening.”

COVID’S IMPACT ON SUPPLY CHAINS

Daniel Wintz

“Mother Nature provides a lot of random independent events that are ‘one-offs,’ so to speak. And COVID for us has almost kind of just been another one of these.

“This demand spike at our biggest facilities was just kind of a small Thanksgiving in terms of product we need to ship out. So this quote-unquote panic buying was almost less than Thanksgiving, so to speak, which I find kind of interesting because it’s been in the news everywhere. Stores are out of toilet paper. There’s people hoarding stuff left and right and it’s kind of fascinating."

Elliott Wolf

“I myself did not anticipate it would have this big of an impact on the domestic supply chain. But to the extent the federal government knew about it in January and February, that information would have been helpful to start setting all of this up in anticipation of that.”

ON CHANGES IN PURCHASING DURING COVID

Daniel Wintz

“Meatpackers are relatively struggling, and fruits and vegetables — they’re coming in, they’re going out relatively unfazed, which honestly I found surprising at the beginning of the panic buying COVID period. You’d expect the fruits and vegetables to be the things that ran out at the store but that supply chain is just kind of functioning. What’s out is baking powder and flour and pasta and rice and beans. They make some sense because they’re non-perishable, but I just found that surprising.”

ON FOOD LOSSES DURING COVID-19

Elliott Wolf

“What’s been happening in the fields is tragic. Perfectly good produce is getting plowed back into the fields. But for the food industry, it’s not unprecedented. Whether it was taken out by a lack of restaurant demand or taken out via some bad weather event. The food industry is still resilient against stuff getting taken out. This just has a much more emotional element because it seems perfectly good.”

“It’s sad, but the way we look at it is it’s as if El Niño rains wiped out a slug of the Southern California fruit harvest. It’s sad, but it’s not unprecedented.”

ON THE PANDEMIC ACCELERATING THE ROBOTIZATION PROCESS

Elliott Wolf

“I think we are starting to change our automation strategy to go towards stuff that would be difficult to socially distance. To do automation purely for the purposes of safety even if it’s economically irrational."

“One of the reasons why it’s so labor-intensive right now is that there’s 50,000 items available in your nominal supermarket and that number is only growing. And that variety makes it really hard to automate right now. So I could see the two working together, where you have kind of a strategic pull back on variety, coupled with an increase in automation.”

Meet the Experts:

Elliott Wolf is vice president and chief data scientist of Lineage Logistics, the largest temperature-controlled warehouse owner and operator in the world, with 293 facilities across six countries. The Lineage data science team is responsible for the mathematics, statistics, computer science, physics and R&D underlying storage, shipment and routing of food, as well as the siting, design and operation of Lineage’s warehouses.

Daniel Wintz is a principal data scientist at Lineage Logistics. He heads all efforts related to labor, automation and inventory. Wintz and his algorithms are the air traffic controllers of inventory and labor across the food supply chain.

Gary Gereffi is an emeritus professor of sociology and director of the Global Value Chains Center at Duke University.

Lori Leachman is a professor of economics at Duke University.

Giovanni Zanalda is a Duke faculty member and director of the Duke University Center for International & Global Studies

(Wintz and Wolf’s remarks were their own and do not represent the views of Lineage Logistics.)