Category: Campus

'Some Places Will Not Be Livable'

Climate change is already forcing people to leave their homes, and millions more will follow in the years to come.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found 3.3 to 3.6 billion people are highly vulnerable to climate change because of their location and circumstances.

Duke University is responding. Reflecting the Duke Climate Commitment, scholars have launched a new Program on Climate-Related Migration, working on transdisciplinary research to better understand the complex links between climate change and human mobility, and to inform policies that can help.

The co-directors of the new program, Sarah Bermeo and Kerilyn Schewel, joined fellow Duke scholars scholars Erika Weinthal and Drew Shindell in a conversation moderated by immigration reporter Dara Lind.

 

Here are excerpts:

WHY CLIMATE-RELATED MIGRATION RESEARCH IS IMPORTANT

Sarah Bermeo: “With the amount of climate change we are experiencing, some places will not be livable. Lives will be affected. Often the poor and disadvantaged will be affected most. We have to define the problem of climate-related migration and then get to solutions.”

Keriyn Schewel: “We need to get over the question of whether migration is good or bad, but rather how we deal with it.”

 

FACTORS INFLUENCING CLIMATE-RELATED MIGRATION

Erika Weinthal: “It is easy to fall into the narrative and assume that only climate-related events drive people to move, but it is important to understand how they interact with political economy considerations, such as in Syria.”

Schewel: “It can be hard to decipher slow climate risk onsets and ways to assist migrants in those settings. In cases of natural disaster, it’s more clear how to respond. We need to think of all of the legal pathways to facilitate people on the move and holistic strategies to respond to changing migration systems.”

Bermeo: “People leave their homes because of climate, but that is not why they leave their countries. There is external migration (outside of a country) when affected persons cannot find internal solutions (inside a country). One of the big problems is we don’t know how to quantify this migration. We don’t have data on climate-related migration. How do you build systems, then? We need to bring in natural sciences combined with social sciences and demographers; an interdisciplinary approach is the only pathway forward.”

 

TOOLS THAT CAN ADDRESS CLIMATE-RELATED MIGRATION

Drew Shindell: “We need to use a combination of earth systems observations and model projections to quantify areas that are more vulnerable. There are systems to look at polar ice sheets that can be used to look at climate-related migration. Through projections, we can also see that some areas are increasingly becoming too hot for people to live. We can use projections and data on current trends for policy and economic analysis.”

Weinthal: “There have been consistent warning trends and prediction from climate data for decades. But we are not quantifying how many people are on the move. Depending on politics at the time in a place, numbers can shift at any time. There are more variables that come into play with climate-related migration data. We should analyze climate data alongside information about economic resources and policies.”

Schewel: “Qualitative data is important to understand the decision criteria for migrants to support adaptation strategies. This means gathering information about how populations affected perceive climate change and how they decide where to stay or go.”

Sarah Bermeo, middle, speaks at the panel on climate-related migration

POLICY SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE-RELATED MIGRATION

Schewel: “Participatory approaches involving local communities are important to learn about effective adaptation strategies. Partnerships with local think tanks who have knowledge of countries can craft more practical policies.”

Bermeo: “We need to think about long-term solutions as well as policy quick wins. For example in Central America, invest in rural farmers and climate-smart agriculture to reduce the need to migrate from that region. Investing in adaptation in fragile regions could have short-term impacts for those who do not want to leave but are forced to go.”

 

Panelists:

Sarah Bermeo
Sarah Bermeo is a political economist and associate professor of public policy and political science in the Sanford School at Duke University, director of Graduate Studies (DGS) in the Master of International Development Policy (MIDP) program and co-director of PCRM. Her research lies at the intersection of international relations and development.

Kerilyn Schewel
Kerilyn Schewel is co-director of PCRM, a lecturing fellow at the Duke Center for International Development and senior researcher at the International Migration Institute. Her research examines how processes of development reshape patterns of human migration. 

Erika Weinthal
Erika Weinthal is professor of environmental policy and public policy at the Nicholas School of the Environment and professor of environmental policy at Duke Kunshan University. Weinthal specializes in global environmental politics and environmental security with a particular emphasis on water and energy.

Drew Shindell
Drew Shindell is Nicholas Distinguished Professor of Earth Science at the Nicholas School of the Environment. He studies climate change, air quality, and links between science and policy.

The Duke Program on Climate-related Migration is coordinated through the Duke Center for International Development (DCID) with support from the Duke Office of Global Affairs.

 

Where Christianity Blends with Native American Culture

There are no hard wooden pews at the Underground Theology discussions.

Hosted by Duke Chapel’s Rev. Racquel Gill, minister for intercultural engagement, the series creates a space to explore faith and underrepresented cultures. Students sit on oversized purple couches while young children play in the background.

Rev. Alex Stayer-Brewington of Westminster Presbyterian Church in Durham featured in the first discussion of Native theology in the series. Stayer-Brewington is a member of the Lumbee Tribe of North Carolina and received his master’s in divinity at Duke.

“My conviction is that the Christian tradition is much wider and wilder and weirder than the present presentation of it allows for,” Stayer-Brewington said. “And that if we give ourselves and one another permission to express our faith in that way, then I think there can be extremely beautiful results.”

Here are some excerpts from the discussion. The next event in the series takes place Nov. 15 at 6:30 p.m. at the same location: the Center for Sexual and Gender Diversity on the top level of the Bryan Center.

Visit the Underground Theology website for a full list of events.

 

Rev. Racquel Gill: Who are you? Who are your people? And how does your identity inform your relationship with the divine?

Rev. Alex Stayer-Brewington

“I'm a citizen of the Lumbee nation. We are a community, a tribe that was formed at contact with the Europeans when we were forced away from the coast into the swamps of what is now Robeson County, North Carolina, presently the poorest county in the state. Not a lot of tillable land, and it's all cut up with swamps, creeks, and a really beautiful river from which we take our name.” 

“We have lost our language. We've lost many aspects of our traditional culture. But in the last 500 years, we've developed an extremely robust, beautiful network of traditions, our own way of talking and eating and worshiping.” 

“I've lived all my life – but for a year and a half – in or very near my ancestral territory. The older I get, I realize how special that is. I get to be in a relationship with the animals and interact with the same plants and set out under the same sky that my ancestors have.”

“Going into this conversation, I want to say it's important to come in with a spirit of humility. I don't speak for all the people, I certainly don't speak for all Native nations.”

“My community taught me to be a good relative – showing up and saying, ‘What can I bring? What can I do?’ And then also being the relative who accepts help and assistance.”

“The other big lesson is building a relationship with whatever land you're occupying presently…. Be a little curious about where you are and how you got there.”

Rev. Racquel Gill: One place of critique in a lot of Christian traditions has been around the conversation of ancestral veneration, ancestral connection and community. Why do these connections matter for Indigenous people?

Rev. Alex Stayer-Brewington:

“To have spent almost all of my life near my ancestral homeland is to be aware that the dirt is, literally, the bones of my ancestors. This is where, for 15,000 years, my people have been. I think that connection and deep awareness, for me, there's a lot of competence that comes from that. There's a feeling of being in the right place.”

“We talk a lot about the post-apocalypse or what it's going to look like on the other side of a climate collapse. But I come from the people who have already experienced the apocalypse. We've already lost everything: life as we knew it, our language, the way we relate to one another. All that is gone. And yet, we are still here.”

“If you look at Jesus's ministry, and you look at the story of Ruth, those are Jesus's ancestors. You look at the hospitality in that story, you look at the history and you think, ‘Oh, clearly, Jesus is shaped by the stories that were told to him about these women and his family.’”

“I think once you open up your scriptural imagination, which I think is sometimes difficult for us in the West, you begin to see more creatively when you look at some of these things.”

Rev. Racquel Gill: I'm going to read a quote, “American Indian cultures tend to understand the world in terms of the infusion of the sacred through all of life and all of creation.” Growing up, did you experience that infusion of the sacred in all of life and all of creation? Can you share any examples?

Rev. Alex Stayer-Brewington:

“No, I did not experience that. As a child, I grew up a citizen of an occupied nation. I grew up under white supremacy and capitalism.” 

“The only time I really approached this was completely outside of an Indigenous context when I learned how to surf when I was in the ninth grade. And here was this sort of like, organized play, where you're just spending time and paying attention to the ocean, you're so you're learning the rhythm and where you need to position yourself in front of a wave, so that it'll carry you and you can stand up to experience maybe 30 seconds of pleasure and then fall into the water again.”

“But looking back now, when I go back to that beach, I realize I can look out at the water and see the exact same thing as my dad's great-great-great-great-great grandfather.” 

“Now that's changing, right? It's getting hotter. Some of the animals are dying. I don't know that my daughter will have that experience in the same way that I did. But certainly not my granddaughter.”

“​​What I do know is when the Europeans came here, they destroyed a lot of things. And they used Christianity as a tool of destruction. But then we took it, and we crafted it into medicine. And we crafted it into a shelter. And we made a form of a home for it.”

No Bull! These Students, Community Members Voted on Democracy Day

Video of Duke Democracy Day

With a mix of music, art and a little cheer to pump up the energy, the student-organized Democracy Day pulled in large numbers of voters Friday, many of them Duke students.

By the end of the day, 848 people walked out of Karsh Alumni and Visitor Center wearing a “No Bull, I Voted!” sticker. That was almost twice the previous top voting total at Karsh during the 2022 early voting period. 

Early voting for the Nov. 8 election ends at 3 p.m. Saturday, Nov. 5.

juniors Malika Rawal, left, and Reah Syed leave the Karsh Alumni and Visitors Center with their “No Bull I Voted stickers,” after casting their votes.

Juniors Malika Rawal, left, and Reah Syed leave the Karsh Alumni and Visitors Center with their “No Bull I Voted’ stickers.

 

Duke Democracy Day activities included students coloring voting posters at the Nasher Museum of Art and enjoying food and live music after voting at the Karsh Alumni and Visitors Center. Here, senior Julia Deitelbaum colors a voting poster with classmates

Duke Democracy Day activities included students coloring voting posters at the Nasher Museum of Art and enjoying food and live music after voting at the Karsh Alumni and Visitors Center.

 

senior Julia Deitelbaum hangs a voting poster on the Democracy Wall at the Nasher.

Senior Julia Deitelbaum hangs a voting poster on the Democracy Wall at the Nasher Museum.

 

sophomore AJ Kochuba colors a voting poster with classmates at the Nasher.

Sophomore AJ Kochuba colors a voting poster with classmates at the Nasher.

 

Senior Ila Amiri performs for classmates as part of the Democracy Day festivities in the parking lot across the street from the Karsh Alumni and Visitors Center

Senior Ila Amiri performs for classmates as part of the Democracy Day festivities in the parking lot across the street from the Karsh Alumni and Visitors Center.

Video by Megan Mendenhall. Photos by Jared Lazarus.

 

Scholars: Midterm Elections Critical for Progress on Climate Change

Scholars: Midterm Elections Critical for Progress on Climate Change

DURHAM, N.C. – The upcoming midterm elections could have a massive impact on this country’s ability to make progress on climate change, two Duke experts said Wednesday.

These impacts could be felt on local, state and federal levels, especially in places where Republicans edge closer to taking control of power levers. A shift in Congress, for example, could imperil the recently approved Inflation Reduction Act, which includes a great deal of funding for climate-related issues.

Duke scholars Kay Jowers and Geoffrey Henderson discussed these and many other issues during a virtual briefing with journalists. (Watch the briefing on YouTube.)

Here are excerpts:

ON IMPORTANCE OF MIDTERMS TO CLIMATE ISSUES

Geoffrey Henderson, climate policy scholar

“This is a very high stakes election for climate change. If history is any guide, congressional Democrats are facing headwinds as the incumbent president’s party. And if the Republican party wins a majority in the House of Representatives, Congress is going to lose its ability to enact climate policies that have solid majority support in every single congressional district.”

“Climate is really on the ballot in the fall. Many voters are more focused on things like inflation, understandably, because people are struggling to get by in this economy. But it’s worth noting that the paradigm that we have to have a tradeoff between the environment and the economy is something that has actually really shifted. The conversation has changed in recent years in large part due to the great organizing that has been done around the Inflation Reduction Act.”

“The Democrats are running on the benefits of climate policy for the economy in terms of job creation, in terms of public health, and also in terms of utility bills. There’s sort of a different conversation starting to brew around climate change that could see climate change move up into that category of economic issues that typically are top of mind for voters in midterm elections.”

ON ELECTION’S CONSEQUENCE

Kay Jowers, environmental policy scholar

“If there is a landslide victory for Republicans, if they overtake a majority in the House, it’s possible that the Inflation Reduction Act could be at risk. We tend to see that when major bills like this are put in place and are in place for a while and have begun to be implemented, it’s difficult to completely overturn them. But they certainly could throw up road blocks and barriers.”

ON WHERE AND HOW CLIMATE IS ON THE BALLOT

Kay Jowers

“We’re seeing things showing up on the ballot in interesting ways. Policy that is at risk are things like the Inflation Reduction Act. We also are seeing some policy proposals. California and New York both have important propositions on the ballot this year.”

“Climate change shows up in so many policies that we don’t think. There’s so many issue areas that are affected by climate. Immigration policy is related to climate because climate is driving a great deal of migration across the world and even across the United States.”

“The Inflation Reduction Act – it doesn’t even have ‘climate’ in the name but it’s probably one of the most important climate policies today.”

ON POLITICAL MOVEMENT AROUND CLIMATE CHANGE

Kay Jowers

“There’s been quite a bit of mobilization in civil society, everyday organizations and advocacy groups. Youths in particular are mobilized around climate. We also saw a lot of mobilization during the pandemic that related to climate issues. We tend to think very narrowly about climate, but it is related to public health and pandemics and heat and a lot of the economic development issues people have been mobilizing over worldwide.”

Geoffrey Henderson

“In 2018, a group of climate activists staged a sit-in in the office of Rep. Nancy Pelosi, who was about to become speaker of the House. That really projected climate change onto the map in terms of major political issues. Newly-elected Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joined them, and that was a big part of it, emphasizing that climate change was a litmus test for progressives.”

“In the following year’s Democratic presidential primary, we actually saw every single presidential candidate including Joe Biden endorse the Green New Deal. So there was this really, really big shift from 2016 to 2020 in terms of climate’s prominence on the national political agenda. It’s worth noting that wasn’t a blip. We’ve actually seen a movement of activist groups across the country.”

ON PREDICTING VOTER TURNOUT

Geoffrey Henderson

“There are so many issues in this election that could be very mobilizing for voters. On the one hand there’s the fundamentals that pollsters and political scientists typically focus on, like the approval rating of the incumbent president and consumer confidence in the economy.”

“But with the Dobbs decision earlier this year, half of America lost a fundamental right. That’s not a usual thing. So if you look at what past elections show us about the present, it’s hard to extrapolate.”

“It’s also not a usual thing that we see a violent insurrection. So a lot of the conventional wisdom about midterm elections is a little bit clouded by these unusual historical times.”

ON CONSEQUENCES IN NORTH CAROLINA

Geoffrey Henderson

“The (Republican majority) legislature is just five seats away from reaching a veto-proof majority that would actually allow them to pass legislation that has been passed in many Republican-controlled states that would curb the ability of cities like Durham to take the initiative in addressing climate change. Specifically, the American Gas Association is sort of behind this campaign to ensure states don’t allow their cities to shift away from natural gas for heating. North Carolina is very close to passing a similar law. So in terms of control of the North Carolina General Assembly, that’s one of the climate battlegrounds at the state level.”

“Another interesting state is Minnesota, which has been trending blue for a long time. The State Senate there is two seats away from shifting to a Democratic majority that would allow Gov. Tim Walz to enact a pretty significant slate of climate policies that would boost electric vehicles and public transit. So state-level races are very important to watch as well.”

ON HOW CANDIDATES DISCUSS CLIMATE

Kay Jowers

“I hear candidates talking about climate issues for sure. Mostly that’s because I see climate as so intricately interwoven with so many other policies. Anyone who is talking about jobs, economic development, energy, national security issues, can be affected by climate.”

“We’re hearing lots of opposition to the programs the Biden administration has proposed and to the cost that will come with the investments the government is going to make. Whether it’s related to climate specifically or just the cost in general and wanting to take more conservative approaches, we do hear that opposition.”

“In the same way that I hear climate in some of the campaigns that are promoting climate issues, I also hear things that are anti-climate when we are talking about a variety of issues as well.”

“I do think the Democrats have been smart this time around in putting the climate change policy in the Inflation Reduction Act, in infrastructure bills. The dialogue during the last presidential election was very much about the Green New Deal. And the Green New Deal was visionary; it was a complete shift and change in thinking about how we provide social welfare and how we approach climate. It was pretty resoundingly attacked. It was going to have a high cost. There were many benefits as well but it left the Democrats pretty vulnerable in defending the policy of the Green New Deal. This time around, because it is tied into these infrastructure deals … I think Democrats are less vulnerable.”

Geoffrey Henderson

“There really has been a pervasive narrative in American politics for a long time about the costs of acting on climate change. Essentially you can either choose the economy or the environment.”

“That paradigm is starting to shift thanks to the fact that the cost of solar and wind are falling really rapidly, making them, in a lot of cases, favorable options to fossil fuel for electricity generation.”

ON WHETHER CLIMATE CHANGE CAN BE A NON-PARTISAN ISSUE

Geoffrey Henderson

“The usual story about climate change during campaign season is that its Democrats vs. Republicans. But it’s actually worth breaking that down to politicians and voters. Republican politicians have historically over the last few decades have had a pretty close relationship with the fossil fuel industry, which directly or indirectly funds many of their campaigns.”

“But that sort of dynamic belies the support among Republican voters for policies that would make an impact in reducing carbon pollution.”

“The average Republican voter … agrees that climate change is happening and that human activity contributes to it. There’s a major disconnect between what constituents want and what elected officials think they want. Part of that is because of these close ties between interest groups and elected officials. Interest groups stand in for the preferences of constituents even when their preferences and their priorities differ pretty significantly from the median voter.”

“While the Republican Party in government has not shifted that much, with a few notable exceptions, the grassroots Republican Party is starting to change. There is a growing constituency of Republican climate advocates. We see unlikely alliances between environmentalists and libertarians trying to scale back regulations on rooftop solar.”

“Public attitudes are shaped in large part by the leaders of the party they identify with. So to fully understand Republicans’ climate attitudes, we need to think about the information environment … a Republican voter occupies. So if we consider the coverage climate change typically receives on conservative outlets, Republican voters’ openness to climate action is actually pretty remarkable.”

ON ONE THING VOTERS SHOULD KNOW REGARDING CLIMATE AND THE ELECTIONS

Geoffrey Henderson

“Voters’ voice matters. Voting is just the beginning. It doesn’t actually send a specific signal to policymakers about which issues voters are most concerned with. The best way to do that is to get involved in a grassoots organization. Members of Congress don’t really know what their constituents want. A large part of that is that they’re most responsive to large donors and interest groups. So essentially they aren’t following public opinion polls and they don’t know what the public wants unless we tell them.”

“But my research shows that when a significant share of constituents are sort of calling congressional offices, emailing, writing to those offices, and are saying they’re concerned about an issue, that registers with congressional offices. That registers.”

“Joining an organization then becomes really critical because collective action is what drives change. A lot of folks feel they are alone in this political system. They think their voice doesn’t matter. Because, understandably, our democracy is awash with money from corporations and wealthy donors. It’s beholden to interest groups. But at the end of the day, we’re a democracy. Whoever gets the most votes wins.”

“Most campaign dollars go into advertising. The reason this is important is in general elections there’s very little evidence to suggest that advertising makes a big difference either in getting voters to the polls, or persuading them. So a large enough group of organized people with an effective strategy can beat organized money.”

Kay Jowers

“The phone calls (to lawmakers) are really impactful. The fact that you will pick up the phone and call really does matter. Those other ways of advocating for change matter as well, but we see that postcards and petitions are sometimes less impactful than picking up the phone and being willing to call. I hate voicemail and phones as much as anyone, and yet I think people know you really care if you go that far and make a phone call.”

“Also just recognize climate is just interwoven with everything. It’s big, and it’s easy to get apathetic. But people getting apathetic doesn’t mean they don’t care about it. It means they don’t necessarily see a way of affecting change. But you can affect change on climate through immigration policy, through local implementation of funds around affordable housing. You can incorporate climate into many of those issues because it is inextricably linked with them.”

“And also making sure that the people who have been historically disenfranchised and not able to vote, have access to the vote and demanding we make sure we are not unduly restricting voting rights. That’s important as well.”

Briefing Participants

Geoffrey Henderson
Geoffrey Henderson is a postdoctoral associate at Duke’s Sanford School of Public Policy, where he examines how to make democracy work better in the context of major societal problems like climate change. His research looks at state- and federal-level coalitions of environmental and labor groups advocating for policies to address climate change.

Kay Jowers
Kay Jowers is director for Just Environments at Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainability and the Kenan Institute for Ethics. Her work focuses on analyzing state regulatory and policy approaches to addressing environmental issues and engages with environmental equity, ethics, and justice in particular. She co-directs the Environmental Justice Lab, a collaboration with the Duke Economics Department.

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Duke experts on a variety of topics can be found here.

Follow Duke News on Twitter: @DukeNews

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University Message on Voting at Duke This Fall

To the Duke University and Duke Health Community,

We are writing today to encourage you to cast your vote in the upcoming elections, either during early voting or on election day, November 8. Voting is perhaps the most important—and easiest—way to participate in our democracy and shape the future of our local communities and our nation, and this year Duke is offering a number of opportunities to make your voice heard.

Through November 5, anyone eligible to vote in Durham County can use the early voting site that will be at the Karsh Alumni and Visitors Center, 2080 Duke University Road. The polls will be open from 8 a.m. through 7:30 p.m. Monday through Friday, 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. on Saturdays and 2 p.m. to 6 p.m. on Sundays. Early voting will close at 3 p.m. on Saturday, November 5. The Karsh Center is a short walk from West Campus, and ample free parking is available. Note that during North Carolina’s early voting period, you can visit any polling place in the county where you are registered.

Duke Votes is an excellent resource for all things related to voting. Here you can check your current voting status, how to vote by mail or in person on election day and also find resources for voting in your home state, if you aren’t voting in North Carolina.  

In order to allow Duke employees flexibility in casting their vote, Duke University and Duke Health encourage supervisors to cancel nonessential meetings on November 8 and be flexible with scheduling to enable staff members who are unable to vote outside normal work hours to do so before, during, or after their assigned shifts. 

We are proud of the many ways that members of the Duke community provide real leadership in our community and nation. Thank you for making your voices heard and participating in our democracy.

Best wishes,

Vincent E. Price
President

 

A. Eugene Washington
Chancellor for Health Affairs

 

Young Voters are Motivated, But Still Face Obstacles

The Supreme Court’s overturning of the landmark Roe vs. Wade abortion decision could motivate more students than usual to cast ballots in the Nov. 8 midterm elections.

But there are challenges younger voters face this year, says Sunshine Hillygus, a Duke professor of political science who studies youth voting patterns.

“Patterns of voter registration among young people point to the importance of abortion in motivating youth turnout,” says Hillygus, who wrote a book on the topic in 2020 (“Making Young Voters: Converting Civic Attitudes into Civic Action.”)

“Young women have outpaced young men in new registrations since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade.”

Starting Thursday, Duke students, faculty and staff can register and vote early on the same day through Nov. 5 at Karsh Alumni and Visitors Center on West Campus. (Read more here.)

Young people care about politics and intend to vote, but too often fail to follow through on those intentions because of personal and institutional distractions, according to Hillygus’ book.

She says recent laws across the country could make it even more difficult for young voters.

“In the last two years, state legislatures have enacted a flurry of laws making it harder to vote — laws that will disproportionately impact new and young voters,” says Hillygus. “Such efforts should motivate and mobilize young people to vote for elected officials who will not restrict voting access.”

In addition to polling sites on campus, a campus-wide Democracy Day takes place Friday, Oct. 28. The event will feature voter registration, organized walks to early-voting sites, educational programming and other activities related to civic engagement.

Also on Democracy Day at the Nasher Museum of Art, students can use colored pencils and crayons to activate voting-themed posters designed and screen-printed by Duke professor Bill Fick. Duke Arts and Duke Create will lead a printmaking workshop at the Rubenstein Arts Center while inside the Nasher, students are invited to help activate the “Democracy Wall,” a collage of with screen-printed posters.

“We’re excited to find the intersection of art and democracy, freedom of speech and activism,” says Duke sophomore Jack Fuchs.

Organizers of Democracy Day include the Nasher, Duke Arts, the student-run North Carolina Young People’s Alliance, POLIS, DukeVotes, the Duke Student Wellness Center and others.

 

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Whither Democracy? What the Midterm Elections Mean for the Nation

Whither Democracy? What the Midterm Elections Mean for the Nation

DURHAM, N.C. — The evidence-free screams of voter fraud and election illegitimacy that caromed across the nation following the 2020 presidential election created a stress test of sorts for American institutions and democracy itself.

The approaching midterm elections may indicate just how much damage has been done in a country whose system of government relies on public faith in the way politicians are elected, a Duke scholar said Wednesday.

“Democracy is not simply a set of institutions like free and fair elections. It also is a set of widely shared values among the populace that these are the proper governing institutions, as well as the shared belief that those proper institutions are functioning according to their intended rules,” said Adriane Fresh, an assistant professor of political science. “Democracy is fragile absent citizen belief in its legitimacy.”

Fresh and Sunshine Hillygus, a Duke professor of political science and public policy, spoke during a virtual briefing for journalists. They discussed voter fraud concerns, election security, the impact of authoritarian rhetoric, the likelihood of young people to vote, and whether all these polls you’re inundated with are accurate. Watch the briefing on YouTube.

Here are excerpts:

ON POLITICAL RHETORIC ABOUT UNPROVEN ELECTION FRAUD

Adriane Fresh, political scientist

“There are some warning signs … that suggest candidates may not be willing to accept the outcome of elections, namely in the case of their defeat.”

“What you’re seeing is an unprecedented number of candidates who are repeating this factually incorrect claim that the 2020 election was stolen. According to some counts, this is well over 350 candidates and the majority of GOP candidates.”

“You’re further seeing GOP candidates who lost their primary election claim fraud. As just one example, Kandiss Taylor, GOP candidate for governor in Georgia, garnered less than 5 percent of the primary vote but nevertheless claimed fraud and refused to accept the results.”

“It’s difficult as well to draw the causal arrow between citizens and candidates but we’re also seeing polling that suggests that Republican voters in particular are undemocratically willing to only accept election results in the case that their preferred candidate wins. We’re going to have to wait and see exactly what candidates do after the election, but I do think this rhetoric is worrying and has implications for the stability of our democracy more broadly.”

ON THE IMPACT OF DANGEROUS RHETORIC

Adriane Fresh

“The proliferation of this kind of rhetoric about a stolen 2020 election is worrying for  the future of our democratic institutions.”

“The rhetoric of the stolen 2020 election suggests many elites are lacking in these requisite beliefs in democratic institutions. Although we know they’re still willing to participate in so much as they’re running for office.”

“Of course, it’s important to acknowledge this rhetoric may be a ploy or a tactic, but that’s not likely to be the case universally.”

“Beyond this, polling suggests a worrying set of citizens share these elite beliefs as well. Around 40 percent of Republicans polled in recent surveys believe the 2020 election was fraudulent.”

“If we’re concerned about electoral participation or other forms of democratic participation – if citizens withdraw from the democratic process, if they don’t vote, this potentially impacts the extent to which politicians are representing the public. The public may not perceive the rules and regulations they’re subject to, to be legitimate and they may withdraw their compliance.”

ON NEW STRATEGY OF DISRUPTING ELECTION OFFICES WITH EXCESSIVE PUBLIC RECORD REQUESTS

Adriane Fresh

“It’s important to both heed the concerns of election administrators who are raising this issue of Freedom of Information Act requests and also not to take this issue too far in questioning the integrity of the upcoming election.”

“The reason that I’m not particularly concerned about the upcoming election is primarily because the job responsibilities of election administrators is first and foremost to administer elections according to the rules – freely and fairly.”

“Because Freedom of Information laws allow some discretion as to the timing with which election administrators can respond to these requests. They often times use language like ‘prompt’ reply without specifying precisely how long an administrator must take to respond.”

“This allows them some ability to focus on the election on hand while still being in compliance with the law.”

“In heeding election administrators’ concerns, we should be looking to the long-term implications.”

“Absent a commensurate increase in resources, that is staff or monetary resources with which election administrators can deal with these requests, it is possible that they interfere with administrators’ primary duty, which is administering elections freely and fairly.”

“This increase in rhetoric about fraudulent elections, the increase in politicians who are sort of unwilling to say they’ll concede defeat were they to lose an election … suggests an increase in individuals, whether on their own or through organized efforts, inundating election administrators with requests for additional information. The breadth and volume of these requests may increase. It may reach a tipping point where they really are interfering with administrators’ duties.”

“What is perhaps more worrying to me is that these burdens may overwhelm administrators in a way that interferes with government’s ability to attract and retain qualified individuals for the job. We’ve already seen some cases, like Gillespie County in Texas, where election administrators resigned in part due to this inundation of FOIA requests.”

ON THE IMPACT OF AUTHORITARIAN RHETORIC

Adriane Fresh

“It’s important to separate rhetoric from action. I mean action both in terms of the actions of individuals but also as well the kind of actions of our institutions, that is the functioning of our institutions.”

“When you separate rhetoric and action it’s easier to tease apart what is mere lip service to democracy and what me might construe as genuine concern for the functioning of our institutions.”

“Democracy is just a term when it’s used rhetorically. That term can be strategically deployed. One can argue that the use of the term at the moment is part of this competition for the moral high ground with respect to our institutions.”

“There’s evidence to suggest that when Americans profess support for democracy, it’s often times because of a social norm – their belief that others think they should prefer democracy, as opposed to a deep understand of the constituent components of democracy and support for all of those components.”

“It’s worth saying again and again: There’s no evidence of meaningful fraud that has changed any election outcomes in 2020 or any of these subsequent races. It’s just hard to be any more clear about that. Because of this, those who are professing concern for election integrity – but who are taking actions that actually undermine its integrity – for example inundating elections professionals with these freedom of information requests – and who are also supporting candidates who indicate their support for nondemocratic policies — as revealed by their actions, if not an authoritarian tendency, which might be too extreme, at the very least it’s a concerning apathy for democracy.”

ON EXPECTED YOUNG VOTER TURNOUT

Sunshine Hillygus, political scientist

“There’s some hope that young people will turn out. We have seen an increase in young voter turnout in 2020 and in 2018. Of course it’s useful to keep in mind that even though we have seen some historic levels of youth turnout, the rates of turnout among young people remain pretty abysmal. In 2018, one of the highest turnout rates in a midterm election from young people, still less than a third of young people actually voted.”

“The gap in turnout between a midterm election and a presidential election is particularly large for young people. There’s no chance we’re going to see the type of turnout rates we saw in a presidential election. I think there’s real questions about whether we match 2018; whether youth turnout will be high enough in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, to be enough to tip those races and make a difference.”

“At the same time that young people have been motivated on issues like abortion, especially in recent months, but also climate change and gun control and other issues, we have seen record numbers of state laws passed with voting restrictions that disproportionately hurt young people. So we kind of have two different things working in different directions.”

ON VOTER REGISTRATION NUMBERS IN NC

Sunshine Hillygus

“North Carolina is one of the handful of states where there has been an increase in voter registration numbers compared to this point in 2018, which gives some suggestion that we might be on track for the type of turnout rates we saw in 2018.When it comes to young people, in North Carolina voter registration has actually been highest in independent voters and among Republicans as opposed to Democrats, and so in terms of predicting what that impact is going to be is quite a bit more difficult.”

ON WHETHER MIDTERM POLLING IS RELIABLE

Sunshine Hillygus

“The reality of pre-election polling is that, in state-level polls … the vast majority of those are ones that are using lower methodological standards than what you see in presidential elections – when it’s larger polling organizations who are conducting it. So the sampling methodology is less reliable.”

“There are fewer of those polls and many are being conducted by entrepreneurial pollsters, pollsters who are not necessarily being paid by an organization, or by an organization that has a partisan interest.”

“It makes it very difficult to draw inferences given the variety of different errors we see in state level polls.”

“The biggest issue, even if you have the best pollster out there doing the polling – which we don’t — at the end of the day, the strength of a poll, the reason it’s scientific, is that if you randomly draw a sample from a population, you can make inferences from that sample to the population. But we don’t know the population. We don’t know who is going to vote in a midterm election.”

“When election rates are quite a bit lower, when you have a lot of people registered to vote who don’t turn out, trying to predict who is going to vote is very difficult. At the end of the day, that kind of tool of polling is not particularly useful in a midterm election.”

“We just have to be really cautious, particularly given some of the groups we’re most interested in seeing their movements, whether young people or people of color or independents or the unaffiliated, these are all groups that are particularly difficult to get into polls, and variable from one election to the next.”

“Whether you’re talking about polling in Georgia, polling in North Carolina, I would just urge real caution in over-interpreting those polling numbers.”

ON INTERPRETING EARLY VOTING NUMBERS

Sunshine Hillygus

“There are differences in who is showing up and doing early voting. They are not necessarily going to be representative of how things will look on Election Day.”

“Like polling, early voting results provide some information. But we just don’t have sufficient information to know if those are going to be predictive of the election results.”

ON CITIZENS’ LACK OF KNOWLEDGE OF ELECTION DETAILS

Sunshine Hillygus

“It’s not at all a surprise. I also am not sure it should be an expectation that the public understands the nitty gritty of election administration. One of the reasons we have such low turnout is because of the complexity of election laws and the variation in election laws across different states. The layer of rules, the variation of rules, the complexity rules, that is really, when you compare it to other countries, is kind of crazy. Even the number of races that we expect our citizens to vote in. Really? Can people spend time finding out about the dog catcher race and all these different races down the ballot?”

“The expectation of the public to spend time beyond working their jobs and raising their children, to be good citizens, I absolutely don’t think it’s a surprise.”

“That doesn’t mean misperceptions about the process are not important. The echo chamber becomes important. Are there political elites who are responsible for understanding the rules and reflecting those appropriately, is it a concern that they are really pushing misinformation? That is very important and something we have to take seriously and think about how to address.”

Faculty Participants

Adriane Fresh
Adriane Fresh is an assistant professor of political science who studies voting rights, election administration, racial inequality and how elites respond to dramatic economic and institutional change.

Sunshine Hillygus
Sunshine Hillygus is a professor of political science and public policy who studies American political behavior – including young voters, campaigns and elections, survey methods, public opinion and information technology and politics.
 

Important Things to Know About Early Voting in 2022

Early voting sites open Thursday throughout North Carolina — providing you with an opportunity to avoid long lines on Election Day, change your voting address within the same county or even register to vote, if needed.

In Durham, early voting sites will be open from 8 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Monday through Friday; 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. Saturdays; and from 2 p.m. to 6 p.m. on Sundays. The last day of early voting is Saturday, Nov. 5, when sites will close at 3 p.m.

There is a Lyft discount for Duke community voters to preload before Election Day, Nov. 8, to get to the polls.

For more information on early voting, visit the NC Board of Elections website. Complete information on voting can also be found on the Duke Votes website.

Before heading to the polls, here are the essential things to know about early voting:

1. Duke has an early voting site located at Duke University Karsh Alumni and Visitors Center, 2080 Duke University Road.

Anyone who has been a resident of Durham County for at least 30 days prior to election day on Nov. 8 is eligible to vote at Karsh Alumni Center, including Duke students, staff and faculty. The Center is close to West Campus, making it an easy walk for most people working or learning on campus. There is also free parking provided directly outside of the Center.

It's best to vote mid-morning and mid-afternoons during the work week to avoid lines. The busiest early voting days tend to be the first and last days of early voting. Knowing your candidate choices in advance can make the voting process go more quickly. You can look up your sample ballot on the NC Board of Elections website using the Voter Search tool.

If another local site would be more convenient for you, this Durham County Board of Elections map shows all county early voting sites as well as their average wait times. If you are a resident of another county, multiple early voting sites are available in Wake, Orange, Person, and Alamance counties.  You can also look up all county early polling locations on the state Board of Elections website. 

Remember: if you choose to wait until Election Day on Nov. 8, you must vote at your regular voting precinct.

 

2. You can register and vote at the same time at all early voting sites.

Did you miss the Oct. 14 deadline for regular voter registration? If so, here’s good news: It’s not too late to register to vote. Same-day registration and voting is available on campus at Karsh Alumni and Visitors Center, along with other early voting locations. To register to vote at an early voting site you must be eligible to vote and provide proof of residency, and will be required to fill out a North Carolina Voter Registration Application.

Same-day registrants must attest to their eligibility and provide proof of where they live. A voter attests to their eligibility by completing and signing the North Carolina voter registration application (available in English or Spanish). The voter must prove their residence by showing any of the following documents with their current name and address:

  • North Carolina driver’s license.
  • Other photo identification issued by a government agency. Any government-issued photo ID is acceptable, provided that the card includes the voter’s current name and address.
  • A copy of a current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or other government document showing the voter’s name and address.
  • A current college/university photo identification card paired with proof of campus habitation. For additional guidance on acceptable proof of residence for college students, visit Registering as a College Student: During Early Voting.

During early voting you may also update your name and address within the same county, if needed. You will not be able to register to vote or change your voter registration on Election Day.

For more information, review these complete voter registration rules in North Carolina or same-day registration guidelines.

 

3. You must follow all polling place rules when you vote.

North Carolina law prohibits voters from taking photos or videos inside the voting enclosure — meaning no “I Voted” selfies with your ballot are allowed. You may bring your phone inside the voting booth, but you are not allowed to communicate with anyone via talk, text, email if you do. You are allowed to bring print voting guides or endorsement slates in with you and you can use an electronic device to access a slate card or candidate information so long as you do not use your device to communicate with anyone.

In addition, whether voting early or on election day, NC law prohibits political activity within a buffer zone that usually extends 50 feet out from the entrance to the polling place.

The related law governing apparel, such as hats or t-shirts with political statements on them, is more complicated. You may enter a polling place to vote wearing political items so long as you proceed to vote in an orderly and timely manner and refrain from attempting to electioneer within the voting place.

If you violate this prohibition, you will be warned and, if necessary, asked to leave the polling place. However, because the definition of “electioneering” is sometimes a judgment call, and disputes can have a negative impact on voter safety, it is probably best to leave all political apparel at home. Read the NC law in full at the NC General Statues website.

 

4. You can still vote by absentee ballot — and have the option of dropping your ballot off at an early voting site.

If you have already requested an absentee ballot, you may drop it off at any early voting site in person, either for yourself or a close relative, but you will have to wait in line with on-site voters to do so.

If you do not drop your absentee ballot off at an early voting site, you can return it to your local board of elections or a designated drop-off site by 5 p.m. on election day. Remember that you must return your absentee ballot in the county in which you are registered to vote. You can also mail or deliver your ballot via UPS, FedEx or DHL, as long as it’s postmarked by 5 p.m. on Election Day and received by Nov. 14 at 5 p.m. Ballots without a postmark must be received by Election Day. Be sure to use the return envelope provided with your absentee ballot when you turn it in.

It’s also not too late to request an absentee ballot. You have until 5 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 1 to request an absentee ballot. You can easily fill out an absentee ballot request form online. When filling out your absentee ballot, one notary public or two witnesses must be in your presence when you mark your absentee ballot. They should only observe you marking your ballot, not how you vote.You can make sure your absentee ballot was received by using Ballottrax, which is an absentee ballot tracking site operated by the N.C. State Board of Elections.

Note: Even if you have already requested an absentee ballot, you can still opt to vote in-person during early voting or on election day so long as you have not already voted by absentee ballot. In addition, if your absentee ballot is rejected for any reason, you can go ahead and vote in-person instead. Get more information on absentee voting in NC on the Board of Elections website.

 

5. Voting in North Carolina is secure

No election system or voting system in the state has ever been the target of a successful cyberattack. Learn more about election security in the state.

It Takes a Village: On Students Finding Advice and Help Along the Duke Journey

As a first-year student at Duke, Brooke Harmon didn’t know she would need a mentor – or two, or three – to help guide her through college.

But what she didn’t look for, she found nevertheless. Now a senior, Harmon boasts an important, vast and diverse web of friends, confidants, advisers and mentors who she has leaned on throughout her collegiate journey. This group – a personal, informal board of directors of sorts – has proven valuable to Harmon and is the sort of support system Duke’s career counselors and other student affairs gurus want all students to develop.

It’s a way to make a big university smaller; to make the journey clearer; and to provide sounding boards and advice for all sorts of problems and questions.

“Mentorship comes in a lot of different forms,” Harmon said. “When you’re at some low points — and they happen in your undergraduate career — you have people you can reach out to. You may need advice, or you may need emotional support. Having all these different places and people to draw on is amazing because you’re not relying on just one person.”

The recent Spark Summit, the official kick off the sophomore year, featured a curated conversation with the actress Retta, a Duke graduate, and focused on wellness and interactive sessions to foster peer connection and exploration. The day featured two discussions about mentoring, advising and the importance of what some call ‘helpful humans.’ They are the friends, advisers, faculty, staff or other folks in students’ lives who may not have a formal advising role but still help guide students at times. It is a point of emphasis reflected in Duke’s strategic goals of transforming learning and renewing the campus community. Those themes are also amplified by Duke’s new QuadEx initiative, a new living-and-learning model that seeks to more closely connect the residential and academic lives of undergraduate students.

“Finding helpful humans who can help you think through changing relationships, major declaration, internship, and summer opportunities, are going to make your time at Duke less stressful,” said Greg Victory, executive director of Duke’s career center. “These relationships can be short term — 1 or 2 conversations — or longer term … or for a lifetime. Build a community of folks at Duke who you can bounce ideas off, seek advice from and who can cheer you on through your successes and even through those failures.”

The first helpers Harmon discovered came organically – a group of fellow members of Femmes+, a student group dedicated to promoting the STEM disciplines – science, technology and engineering – to underrepresented groups. Harmon’s group works on STEM activities with fourth, fifth and sixth graders in local public schools.

That student group led to plenty of friendships, which have made life easier for Harmon in myriad small ways, through chats over coffee or during car rides to dinner. She learned about the challenges of Greek life and the stresses related to parties and social life on campus. And suddenly, she had peer women to emulate.

“I wasn’t looking for that. I didn’t even think I needed it,” said Harmon, now the group’s president. “I thought I was pretty sure of myself. So it was a happy byproduct because I got some great friends and mentorship out of it. And now I get to pay it forward.”

On the academic side, Harmon counts Professor Cary Moskovitz as perhaps her most important advisor.

This is odd only because their academic pursuits are far apart — Harmon is studying computer science and statistics while Moskovitz teaches in the Thompson Writing Program. He also leads a research project that examines text recycling – the reuse of their own written materials by scholars in academic writing.

Their connection was serendipitous. As a first-year student, Harmon wanted to do some undergraduate research. Moskovitz needed an assistant. They began working together, and Moskovitz has been a constant presence since.

“He wasn’t assigned to me but he just took on that role. He wrote me a recommendation letter for study abroad and he’s someone I go to talk with about career stuff,” Harmon said. “He’s more of a humanities professor, very different field, but it doesn’t matter.”

It makes sense for students to have more than one mentor, Moskovitz said, since they all have strengths and weaknesses. One size does not fit all.

“The idea that individuals have a single mentor is now pretty much an outdated way of thinking – that one person can do all those mentoring things you need,” he said. “The idea now is to develop mentor networks. I think she’s a really good example of the different ways people of different experiences can be useful.”

Harmon’s helpful humans list rolls on. She also counts her academic adviser as integral to her time at Duke as well as other administrators with the Duke Career Center, where she has worked for several years and is now a Career Ambassador there, helping students with resumes, cover letters, interviewing and other tasks.

The Career Center has a philosophy called Career Everywhere, which Harmon appears to be following whether she knows it or not. It’s the idea that students can receive career – and life – guidance through conversations and experiences with all manner of people they interact with.

“You might have different people for different topics. You might go to one person to talk about class. You might go to another to talk about relationships in general. And you never know when that may turn into a career conversation,” said Catherine Allen, assistant director for the advising team at Duke’s Career Center. “A huge part of the career development process is getting to know yourself. Even in these conversations that aren’t directly about the job you want to have post-Duke, or the internship you want next summer, you’re still developing yourself and your skills and your interests.”

Looking to Ocean Diplomacy for Ways to Regulate Space

Scholars seeking ways to develop a roadmap for regulating outer space say there is much to be learned by considering decades of evidence-based ocean diplomacy.

It’s another topic Duke’s recently launched Space Diplomacy Lab examined in a recent webinar. The Sept. 23 webinar, introduced by Giovanni Zanalda, a Duke faculty and co-founder of the lab, focused on the lessons the burgeoning field of space diplomacy can learn from the multilateral science policy approach taken through ocean diplomacy.

“We had a 20th century Outer Space Treaty. It was effective for the time when only Russia and the United States were in outer space,” said Clare Fieseler, a science journalist and Justice Sandra Day O’Connor Fellow at the Smithsonian Institution. Fieseler earned a master’s degree from Duke in 2010.

“But now it's the 21st century, and we have all sorts of actors in space, and we could pretend that that will go away, but it won't. We could pretend war will not come to space, but I think it's highly unlikely, and so I think, similar to what we're doing with oceans we could (do a treaty) for outer space … for similar reasons.”

Other speakers during the event included Alex Kahl, a natural resources manager in the International Fisheries division of the NOAA Fisheries Pacific Islands Regional office.

A growing amount of space junk, the launch of thousands of internet-providing satellites and private trips to low-earth orbit are creating a new era of space activity. Duke’s Space Diplomacy Lab brings together scholars, diplomats, scientists and others to find solutions the international community might adopt to respond and regulate these and other developments in space.

There's a lot of lessons that space diplomacy can learn from ocean diplomacy, said Benjamin Schmitt, co-founder of the Space Diplomacy Lab. Schmitt is also a research associate and project development scientist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

“The oceans drove diplomatic engagement over the past century as landmark multilateral accords, such as the United Nations Convention and the Law of the Sea, which is something we've brought up in this series as an analogy. One area that can benefit from these lessons learned … is building on the decades of evidence-based ocean diplomacy by bringing that into the space diplomacy domain that we've been studying through this program.”

The merging of science and diplomacy is much needed, said William Pearson, a Rethinking Diplomacy Program fellow and former U.S. ambassador to Turkey.
“Science and diplomacy … have not yet learned how to talk to each other effectively,” Pearson said during the webinar. … “The core of what we're trying to do to do is to marry science and diplomacy together as early as possible, and as far into the future as possible to address some of these issues.

“So today's discussion is a perfect example of what we're trying to do, and you've really helped us a lot to see how we might start drawing connections between what you've done with ocean issues and what we might be able to do with space issues.”

The webinar was part of the Space Diplomacy Webinar Series organized by the Rethinking Diplomacy Program with a grant from the Josiah Charles Trent Memorial Foundation Endowment Fund. Watch the webinar here.