If Cruz wins sanctions on Nord Stream 2 pipeline, is Russian invasion of Ukraine more likely?

WASHINGTON — With Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s borders, a related showdown looms in the Senate over potential sanctions.

Sen. Ted Cruz wants economic penalties aimed at blocking Russia’s Nord Stream 2, a pipeline that would bring heating fuel to Germany and cash to Moscow. Last month, he secured a promise of a vote on that bill by Monday, in exchange for allowing the Senate to confirm dozens of stalled diplomatic nominees.

“Everyone opposes NS2 but Putin and Biden,” Cruz asserted Wednesday night.

“When Nord Stream 2 goes online, the odds of Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine will have increased dramatically,” he said recently. “If it is not in the world’s interest for Russia to invade Ukraine, the way to stop it, the time to stop it, is before the fact.”

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Congress to support Cruz’s sanctions bill earlier this week, thanking him and Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who cut the sanctions vote-for-diplomats deal, “for agreeing to put to a stop to Russia’s Nord Stream 2.”

On Wednesday, Senate Democrats unveiled an alternative, setting invasion of Ukraine as a tripwire rather than tying sanctions to a pipeline that is all but complete.

Some warned that Cruz’s approach would hurt relations with Germany at an especially bad time, as NATO tries to stare down Vladimir Putin.

“I think it would make the invasion of Ukraine more likely, not less likely,” warned Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn. “This is an effort by Ted Cruz to try to divide the United States from Europe and embarrass the president. This is not a legitimate means of stopping the pipeline.”

Germany had long pushed for Nord Stream 2, despite qualms about the steady infusion of income it would yield for Russia. The 800-mile pipeline goes through the Baltic Sea, avoiding Ukraine, which also strengthens Putin by depriving that country of any income or ability to divert fuel.

Last year, President Joe Biden appeased Germany by waiving pipeline sanctions adopted with bipartisan support in Congress. Cruz called it a gift to Putin.

But German support has wavered recently, as Russia massed 100,000 troops, plus tanks and artillery, along its long border with the former Soviet Republic.

Top U.S. and Russian diplomats met this week trying to defuse the crisis.

Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., called Cruz’s proposal the “let’s poke our key ally in the eye right in the midst of negotiations with Putin” bill.

The Democratic proposal unveiled by Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., who chairs the foreign relations committee, would “impose crippling sanctions on the Russian banking sector and senior military and government officials if President Putin escalates hostile action in or against Ukraine.”

An invasion would trigger $500 million in defense aid to Ukraine. Menendez said the package is big enough to deter Putin from trying to “rewrite the map of Europe.”

Cruz’s bill targets corporate officers and businesses involved in the planning, construction, or operation of the pipeline. The Nord Stream 2 company has said that more than 1,000 companies from 25 countries were involved in the project.

Earlier this week he rejected Cruz’s approach as counterproductive, arguing that to halt the pipeline now would erase economic leverage that may be the biggest deterrent keeping Ukraine safe.

“Even if you could kill Nord Stream, then Putin would say `I can’t have Nord Stream anyhow, so why shouldn’t I invade?” Menendez said.

The Democrats’ tripwire approach isn’t the only other idea under discussion.

Sen. Lindsay Graham, R-S.C., wants sanctions tied to Russia’s military buildup, and “not wait for an invasion.”

Tensions are especially high in an eastern section of Ukraine where Russia-backed separatists broke away in 2014. Earlier that year, Russia seized the Crimean peninsula when Ukrainians ousted a pro-Russia president.

“It’s very hard to see gas flowing through the pipeline or for it to become operational if Russia renews its aggression on Ukraine,” deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman told reporters Wednesday in Brussels after meeting with NATO allies.

Meeting last week with Germany’s foreign minister, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that gas revenues would cease if Russia attacks Ukraine after the pipeline starts to operate.

“Some may see Nord Stream 2 as leverage that Russia can use against Europe. In fact, it’s leverage for Europe to use against Russia,” Blinken said.

A vote on Cruz’s resolution is expected by Friday and even if it passes, it’s a largely symbolic vote because the Democrat-controlled House is not expected to take up his idea.

Sen. John Barraso, a Wyoming Republican, took to the Senate floor to embrace Cruz’s plan.

“The Democrat caucus is attempting to protect the Kremlin’s greatest geopolitical weapon,” he asserted.

He noted that Moldova, a New Jersey-sized former Soviet Republic on Ukraine’s western flank, was forced to declare a state of emergency in November when Russia threatened to cut off its gas flows.

Under Biden’s approach, Barraso warned, all of Europe could face the same sort of crisis, and the pipeline “will be an enormous transfer of wealth from our allies to our enemy … . History should not be kind to those who gifted Putin a pipeline, pointed like a gun into the heart of Europe.”

Democrats are as nearly as leery of Cruz as they are of the pipeline, though.

“Let’s just say I’m highly suspicious of his motives in pursuing the bill,” said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a liberal Democrat from Rhode Island. “And while I’m no fan of Nord Stream 2, I think it’s important to support the Biden administration’s foreign policy work in this area.”

The Republican’s Senate campaign committee chided Democrats for resisting Cruz’s bill, calling the Menendez bill mere “cover for Democrats too afraid to take bold action against the pipeline that could cause major geopolitical problems.”

Putin and Kremlin aides downplay the possibility of an invasion.

Ukrainian leaders don’t find the assurances credible.

And Putin has warned of “appropriate retaliatory military-technical measures” if the West persists in moves he views as aggressive. That includes any move toward granting Ukraine’s request for NATO membership.

U.S. officials are adamant that Russia cannot and will not have a veto over NATO membership — though no one is in a hurry to invite Ukraine into an alliance that promises military retaliation if any member is attacked.

On Thursday, Russian and Ukrainian representatives will cross paths in person for the first time during the crisis, at a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe in Vienna.

Simon Miles, an assistant professor at the Duke University school of public policy and author of Engaging the Evil Empire, about the end of the Cold War, told reporters Wednesday that for sanctions to really work, the United States will need to enlist France, Germany and others. That takes diplomacy, not just Senate action.

“At the end of the day,” he said, “the Russians have a significant quantity of oil and gas, and there are many people who want to buy it and who see sanctions on Russia, which would drive up the price of those consumables, as being not good for their national interests, even if it’s at the expense of Ukraine.”