News Tip: Castro Resignation Unlikely to Spark Mass Exodus, Duke Expert Says
A new plan to turn back any surge of refugees discourages the Cuban government from allowing mass migration, says Holly Ackerman, librarian for Latin American and Iberia at Duke University Libraries
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
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Holly Ackerman is available for additional comment at (919) 660-5845 or holly.ackerman@duke.edu
Fidel Castro’s resignation as Cuban president is unlikely to inspire a mass exodus from the island, in part because of Castro’s continued hold on power and in part because of changes in U.S. refugee policy, says a Duke University expert on the Cuban diaspora.
“The real dividing point is going to be when he actually dies,” says Holly Ackerman, librarian for Latin American and Iberia at Duke University Libraries and Amnesty International USA’s country specialist for Cuba.
She is the author of the book “The Cuban Balseros: Voyage of Uncertainty,” and has assessed the potential for a Cuban refugee crisis for the United Nations High Commission on Refugees.
The number of people leaving Cuba -- either in smugglers’ fast boats or in fragile crafts such as rafts -- has doubled in the last year, but that’s due more to the increased availability of smugglers than the changing political situation, Ackerman says.
In the last fiscal year, 522 people had been interdicted by the U.S. Coast Guard, according to Coast Guard figures. This year, the figure is 1,040 for the same time period. By contrast, fewer Haitian and Dominican boat people have been interdicted.
Past mass migrations -– such as those in 1980 and 1994 -- have taken place with the assent of the Cuban government, but the current government is unlikely to permit such an exodus because of changes in U.S. policy since 1994, she predicts.
The Caribbean military plan, called Operation Vigilant Sentry, calls for the U.S. to turn back a surge of boat people from any Caribbean nation including Cuba.
“The Cuban government knows it won’t be in their interest to let people leave in large numbers,” Ackerman says. “I don’t think the Cuban government wants to risk anything that could cause civil unrest.”
The Cuban leader’s resignation after nearly 50 years in power is a formalization of the situation since July 2006, when the ailing Castro turned over the reins of power to his brother Raul, so the transition from power essentially has already taken place, she says. People are not likely to push for political reforms, however, until the Castro brothers are gone, she says.
